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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling party was set for a resounding defeat in Turkey’s local polls, leaving the political strongman facing the most severe electoral setback since his rise to power two decades ago.
The opposition was on course to score decisive mayoral victories against Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa and Antalya, Turkey’s five biggest cities, according to initial results on Sunday’s race published by the Anadolu state news agency. Around three-quarters of ballot boxes had been counted by 11.45pm in Turkey.
Opposition mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s strong performance for the Republican People’s party (CHP) in Istanbul marked a particularly painful blow to Erdoğan, who had campaigned vigorously for the AKP candidate in the hopes of vanquishing his most credible rival.
“I can say that Istanbul, with its 16mn people, has given me the mandate for a new term,” İmamoğlu said just before midnight, as crowds holding posters bearing his party’s logo cheered. Around them the country’s largest city exploded with excitement as honking car horns blared out, Turkish flags were waved and crowds burst into song.
The AKP was also set to sustain losses in several of its strongholds across Turkey’s heartland as voters rebelled against years of blistering inflation, which has sent the price of everything from groceries to vehicles soaring and eroded Turks’ savings. Inflation hit almost 70 per cent last month and is expected to rise further this summer.
“It was a ‘no’ vote to Erdoğan especially in Istanbul and a lot of other places as well,” said Selim Koru, an analyst at the Ankara-based Tepav think-tank.
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said the election “tells us there is widespread discontent with the government’s policies and handling of the economy”.
The loss marks a stark turnaround from May’s presidential election, when Erdoğan fought off a six-party opposition alliance that had tried to unseat him. It will also bolster İmamoğlu’s standing as the only politician in Turkey who has repeatedly bested Erdoğan, Turkey’s most important leader since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk who founded the republic a century ago.
İmamoğlu was on course to beat AKP candidate Murat Kurum by a margin of 10 percentage points with 50 per cent of the vote in the Istanbul race, according to Anadolu. That marks the highest margin of victory for an Istanbul mayor in four decades.
Erdoğan, 70, had deployed a barrage of resources to the city, holding rallies and dispatching top ministers to campaign for Kurum as state-aligned media showered the former urbanisation minister with coverage.
İmamoğlu’s win echoed the 2019 municipal race, when the 53-year-old took control of Istanbul in a highly charged campaign in which Erdoğan’s party called — and then lost — a repeat of the vote.
The returns were more dramatic in Ankara, the capital, where incumbent Mansur Yavaş declared victory after notching up 59 per cent of the vote, far ahead of AKP opponent Turgut Altınok at 33 per cent.
“Turkey’s main opposition party managed to defeat the ruling alliance, delivering the biggest election defeat of Erdogan’s career,” said Berk Esen, a professor at Istanbul’s Sabancı university, who added that it was the CHP’s best showing since a general election in 1977.
Beyond the country’s biggest cities, the AKP faced the loss of provinces it had dominated for the past decade or longer, mostly in western Turkey. The opposition CHP was also set to wrest control of the southern city of Adiyaman, one of the hardest hit areas of the 2023 earthquake, and Kilis, a conservative province that borders Syria.
In the predominantly Kurdish south-east, the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy party was set to win 10 provincial capitals, compared with eight in 2019. The party has faced a long-running crackdown by Erdoğan that has included the jailing of several of its mayors and its former chair, Selahattin Demirtaş.
The Islamist New Welfare was on track to capture the religiously conservative cities of Şanlıurfa and Yozgat. The party had supported Erdoğan in last year’s general election but broke with the AKP in this vote over trade with Israel and economic policies.
“It’s enough AKP. We are tired of the AKP because of the economic situation. Everything is so expensive,” said 59-year-old Şanlıurfa resident Ramazan Çimen, who has typically voted for the AKP in the past but said he was backing New Welfare.
“We need a change in this country.”
