Survey of business leaders reflects optimism for the new year

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A renewed sense of optimism among small and midsize business leaders for the year ahead is the main takeaway from a new national survey. 

According to the JPMorganChase 2025 Business Leaders Outlook survey released Tuesday, confidence in the national economy compared to a year ago has jumped 12 percentage points to 55% among small business owners, and more than doubled from 31% to 65% among midsize business leaders. 

While the fear of recession has eased, with 69% of small and 71% of midsize businesses either uncertain about or not expecting one in 2025, inflation remains a top concern as most small business owners are seeing an increase in business expenses, and more than three-quarters of midsize business leaders feel costs are rising, according to the survey. 

“Businesses are entering 2025 with positive momentum after navigating a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected,” Ginger Chambless, head of research at JPMorganChase Commercial Banking, said in a written statement. “We’ll be watching closely to see how this optimism extends throughout the year and influences companies’ growth strategies.” 

Though the majority of leaders nationally say they are feeling positive about their local economy, with 60% of small and 59% of midsize businesses expressing confidence, New York business leaders are less optimistic about their local economy, with just 44% expressing confidence. 

However, that pessimism doesn’t extend to their specific industry or company, as 60% of New York leaders expressed optimism on their industry’s performance and 74% were bullish on their own company’s performance for the year ahead. The survey found that 78% of New York business leaders expect increases in revenue and sales and 67% expect a rise in profits. 

“Small business owners tend to be upbeat by nature, but as the survey shows, we’re seeing particularly strong levels of optimism as we start 2025,” Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business, said in the statement. “I look forward to seeing how that enthusiasm plays out in the economy.” 

When identifying challenges for 2025, midsize businesses point to international tariffs (19%), U.S. competition (18%) and concerns about China’s trade policies (17%, up 8 percentage points from last year).  

In addition, Forty percent of small businesses and close to half of midsize businesses (46%) say labor shortages, retention and recruiting are significant challenges. Many are considering tactics like increasing wages, offering flexible hours or increasing benefits to address these issues. 

“Throughout history, business leaders have shown a remarkable ability to turn obstacles into opportunities,” John Simmons, head of Commercial Banking for JPMorganChase, said in the statement. “As they navigate labor pressures, supply chain dynamics and myriad other challenges, their tenacity and ingenuity will undoubtedly propel their growth in the coming year.” 

JPMorganChase’s Business Leaders Outlook survey was conducted online from Nov. 11 to Nov. 15, 2024 for small businesses (annual revenues between $100,000 and $20 million) and from Nov. 12 to Dec. 4, 2024 for midsize businesses (annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million). The survey polled 2,644 U.S. business owners and leaders across various industries.