India overtakes China as world’s most populous country

India has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN data released on Wednesday, marking a historic crossover moment for the two Asian neighbours and geopolitical rivals. 

According to the UN’s Population Dashboard, India’s population has surpassed 1.428bn, just overtaking China’s more than 1.425bn people. The update in the population estimates came as the world body’s main agency that tracks demographic trends, the UNFPA, released its annual State of the World Population Report. 

India’s population growth rate peaked at 2.4 per cent in the 1980s and had dropped to 1 per cent by 2020, a UN official told the Financial Times, and the population in 31 of its 36 states is now at replacement rate or in decline. However, because of higher fertility rates in the remaining five states, India’s population continues to grow.

“India will face a situation of population momentum for the next 2-3 decades before the decline in the overall population,” said Andrea Wojnar, representative of the UNFPA in India and country director for Bhutan.

India has not held a census since 2011 and postponed its decadal census that was planned for 2021. However, Wojnar said that the UN updated its country population projections based on country specific data on fertility, mortality and migration “and revises its estimates from time to time”.