Era of ‘peace dividend’ is over, says UK defence secretary

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Britain’s defence secretary has said the post-cold war “peace dividend” is over and that western countries need to prepare for further conflicts involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran over the next five years.

Grant Shapps warned on Monday that the world had moved to a “prewar” phase and that the Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts had struck at the heart of the world order, as he called on allies to lift defence spending to meet the rising threat.

“The era of peace dividend is over,” said Shapps in a speech at Lancaster House in London, where he set out his priorities for 2024. “In five years’ time, we could be looking at multiple theatres [of conflict] involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.

“Looking at today’s conflicts across the world, is it more likely that the number grows or reduces? I suspect we all know the answer — it’s likely to grow,” he added.

The peace dividend that followed the end of the cold war enabled politicians to spend billions on health and education instead of their armed forces.

But Shapps said that period had ended, with enemies of the west rearming themselves and each other.

They had also become “more connected” and “more unstable”, and possessed a “wider array of weapons to wreak havoc”, he said, citing Russia’s use of North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and Iran’s provision of military support and intelligence to the Islamist Houthi rebels in Yemen.

“We find ourselves at the dawn of a new era . . . moving from a postwar to a prewar world,” Shapps said. “Old enemies are being reanimated. New foes are taking shape . . . the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core.”

While all 31 members of Nato are notionally committed to spend 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence, only 11 do so at present, according to figures from the military alliance. 

Shapps said Britain was spending more than £50bn — or just over 2 per cent of GDP — on defence, and had increased funds to modernise the UK’s nuclear deterrent and replenish stockpiles of weapons supplied as military aid to Ukraine.

However, he made no calls for extra UK spending on defence, other than to reiterate that it was the government’s “aspiration” to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence as economic conditions allowed.

Addressing criticisms that decades of underspending had left the British armed forces strategically threadbare, Shapps said he had not been prevented from making deployments, including to Kosovo, the Red Sea and Guyana.

He also cited Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement, on a surprise visit to Kyiv last week, that UK military aid to Ukraine would increase to £2.5bn in the next financial year.

“If [Russian president Vladimir] Putin thought that we would be distracted by events in the Middle East . . . then last week his hopes were surely dashed,” Shapps said.

As for the Red Sea, Shapps said the UK would “wait and see” before launching another military strike against the Iran-aligned Houthis.

Britain joined the US last week in a massive air strike against the Yemen-based group to protect international shipping in the Red Sea but was not involved when the US launched another strike the following day.

Shapps said there was not “a precise recipe” that would determine whether the UK took further action, adding that Britain and the US were closely monitoring whether Iran was continuing to provide military support and intelligence to the Houthis.

Meanwhile, home secretary James Cleverly on Monday announced the UK government’s intention to proscribe Hizb ut-Tahrir, which has organised protests in London alongside pro-Palestinian marches in recent months.

Cleverly branded the Lebanon-headquartered group — which operates in more than 30 countries with the aim of establishing a caliphate under Islamic law — “antisemitic” and said it “actively promotes and encourages terrorism”. 

Cleverly laid a draft order before parliament that will come into force on January 19 if approved by MPs. The UK’s ban would outlaw support for and membership of the group, and apply to all its branches worldwide.