Does Hunter Biden’s gun conviction matter to US voters?

Hunter Biden’s conviction on Tuesday on federal gun charges, after days of sordid testimony about his drug habits, marks another tragic turn in Joe Biden’s family history.

But it also comes at a fragile moment for the Democratic president as he competes to catch his Republican rival in this year’s White House race — Donald Trump, who is also now a convicted felon.

The initial signs suggest voters are reluctant to let either conviction decide their choice for president, even as both parties try to capitalise on the verdicts or minimise them.

“To the extent Biden has troubles, and of course he has many, I think it’s much more about his age, perceptions of his performance, and inflation,” said Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

An Emerson College poll conducted last week before Hunter Biden’s conviction found nearly two-thirds of US voters said his trial would have no bearing on their votes in November. Just under a quarter — mostly Republicans — said it would make them less likely to back the president.

Democrats have tried to depict Hunter Biden’s legal problems as a private issue, stemming from the traumatic aftermath of the death from cancer in 2015 of Beau Biden, Hunter’s elder brother. Hunter Biden’s struggles with addiction have long cast a shadow over Joe Biden’s presidency, including during his previous run for the White House in 2020.

Many voters would again see the verdict as a “family matter”, said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. “Most people have members of their family, extended or otherwise, who have experienced drug addiction or other addictions.”

The president has cut the figure of a pained father in recent days, stressing compassion for his son — who is now facing 25 years in prison and a fine of up to $750,000, even before he appears in a separate trial on tax charges in September, just two months before election day.

“I am the president, but I am also a dad. Jill and I love our son, and we are so proud of the man he is today,” Biden said on Tuesday after the verdict. Hours later, the president left Washington for Delaware, where he was greeted on a tarmac by Hunter Biden, his wife Melissa Cohen Biden, and their toddler son Beau Biden.

American voters have often been sympathetic to their leaders’ troublesome family members, including Bill Clinton’s brother Roger and Jimmy Carter’s brother Billy. Even Trump has recently shown a degree of sympathy for Hunter Biden’s addiction problems.

“I had a brother who suffered tremendously from alcoholism and alcohol and it was a terrible thing to watch,” Trump told Fox News’s Sean Hannity last week, referring to his late brother, Fred Trump. “He was an incredible guy with the best personality. He was the best-looking person you have ever seen. Everything was perfect. But he had an addiction. So I understand addiction.”

Trump and his Republican allies, however, suggested Hunter Biden received easy treatment from prosecutors. Republicans in Congress have long been investigating Hunter Biden’s business dealings, in probes that have produced few meaningful revelations.

Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said the Hunter Biden verdict was “nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden crime family”, and repeated Trump’s claims that Joe Biden and his relatives had sold government access for “personal profit”.

Democrats have pointed out the contrast between Joe Biden — who has said he will respect the Delaware court’s decision and not use his power to pardon his son — and Trump, who claims he is the victim of political persecution and vowed to seek retribution if given another four years in the White House.

Hunter Biden’s conviction was secured by a special prosecutor appointed by Biden’s own Department of Justice.

But Republicans have dismissed suggestions that Hunter Biden’s conviction undercuts Trump’s claim of Democrats weaponising the judiciary against him.

“Every case is different, and clearly the evidence was overwhelming here,” Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson told CNN on Tuesday, referring to the Hunter Biden conviction. “I don’t think that’s the case in the Trump trials.”

Johnson was among Trump allies who rushed to be at the ex-president’s side during his New York trial over payments to secure the silence of a porn star. Trump is facing several other criminal charges.

Trump continues to lead Biden in most national and battleground state polling averages, even in the wake of his criminal conviction last month, though his edge has narrowed slightly.

An NPR/PBS Marist survey conducted shortly before the Trump verdict found just over two-thirds of voters said a conviction would not affect their votes.

Legal problems have become an unprecedented issue in what is already an extraordinary US election campaign. But voters appear to be largely unmoved.

The University of Virginia’s Kondik said: “One of the presidential nominees himself was convicted and the change to the polls was slight, or there was no change.”