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Donald Trump will likely claim that crime has risen during Joe Biden’s presidency — and try to tie it to a surge in migrants crossing into the US from Mexico — but crime across the country actually remains near historic lows.
Spikes in homicide rates during the pandemic, particularly in major cities including Chicago and New York, garnered a lot of attention in 2020 and 2021, but have since been declining.
In 2022, the most recent year for which nationwide data is available, there were 6.3 homicides per 100,000 people, down from 6.8 and 6.5 in 2020 and 2021, respectively, according to the FBI. The 2022 figure was well below the 9.8 homicides per 100,000 people recorded in 1991.
Estimates for 2023 homicides rates are lower still, probably falling at one of the fastest rates ever, according to AH Datalytics, a data analytics firm.
All violent crimes nationally fell to 380.7 per 100,000 people in 2022, just below the pre-pandemic level of 380.8. There were 387 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2021, and 398.5 in 2020.
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