Cantor: Will unhappy New Yorkers continue leaving for greener pastures in 2026?

In Brief:

• New York State has lost more than 800,000 residents since 2020, with outbound migration continuing into 2026.
• The United Van Lines 2025 Annual Movers Study shows New York ranking 47th nationally for inbound migration.
• The Nassau-Suffolk MSA ranked second nationwide for outbound migration, with 78% of moves leaving the region.
• Higher-income and older residents are leaving at greater rates, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

As 2026 begins, New York State finds itself losing over 800,000 residents since 2020, the most of any state by share of population. And according to the latest United Van Lines 2025 Annual Movers Study that trend is continuing.

The study—which analyzed the inbound and outbound reasons for moving between states—found that between 2025 and 2018, being closer to family was 29% of the reason for moving, increasing from 24% in 2018, followed by 26% moving for a new job or company transfer down from nearly 48%. In addition, 14% cited retirement falling from 20%, 10% for a lifestyle change below 14% in 2018 and 3% for an improved cost of living, which showed no change. The only category that increased was being closer to family. Locally, however, New York, paints a different picture.

While New York State failed to make the top 10 of states with inbound migration, the only inbound migration category the state ranked in the top 10 of reasons for moving was placing ninth for lifestyle changes. In fact, it ranked one level above California and second only to New Jersey, in losing more people to other regions of the country. By comparison, Oregon was ranked first in the nation with 64.5% of moves inbound and 33.5% outbound, as compared with New York, which was ranked 47th, with 42.2% inbound and 57.8% outbound. Within New York the real cause for concern is that the Nassau-Suffolk County region fared worse.

Not only did the Nassau-Suffolk Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) fail to make the top 25 inbound migration MSAs. Eugene-Springfield, Oregon, was tops with 85% inbound and 15% outbound, while Nassau-Suffolk placed second in outbound MSAs. The Nassau-Suffolk MSA recorded outbound of 78% and only 22% inbound, a difference of 56%. While the outbound migration is disturbing, so are the reasons for that migration.

While there was balance between inbound and outbound New Yorkers citing health as a reason for moving, retirement was the primary reason for leaving, followed by lifestyle changes. Being closer to family and job relocation were the primary inbound migration reasons. The socio-economic cost of these migration patterns is illustrated by the ages and income of those moving.

Showing the impact of young people to New York and the Nassau-Suffolk region are the inbound and outbound age brackets. Between the ages of 18 to 44, the inbound Gen Z and younger Millennials exceed outbound New Yorkers, while there is balance between inbound and outbound for those between 45 to 54 years of age. However, those between 55 and older, outbound migration exceeds inbound, and with them goes the higher income that outbound New Yorkers take with them to spend in the communities where they move.

Assuming those in the older age brackets will earn higher wages, outbound New Yorkers earning between $100,000 and $150,000 or more exceed inbound migrants while inbound migrant incomes of between $0 and $99,999 exceed outbound New Yorkers.

These outbound migration patterns are troubling. The survey results illustrate that New Yorkers are not happy about the state they call home, and they are packing their bags, taking their income and leaving.

The sustainability of the New York and Nassau-Suffolk economies depends on reversing this trend and giving those who are leaving a reason to stay.

Martin Cantor is director of the Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy and former Suffolk County economic development commissioner. He can be reached at [email protected].